Browns at Eagles, Sun.: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Over the final eight games of 2015, the Eagles were very generous to receiving running backs, which is great news for Duke Johnson Jr. In those eight games, the Eagles gave up an average of 6.75 receptions for 72 yards and 0.63 touchdowns receiving per game to backs, which translates to 17.7 PPR points per game on receiving stats alone. [
- Isaiah Crowell ran for 299 yards and three touchdowns in the final four games of 2015. The Eagles allowed 120.5 yards per game rushing to running backs last year, most in the NFL. Over the last eight games, they gave up an average of 29 Fantasy points standard and 35 PPR per game to running backs.
- The Eagles allowed a league high 27 Fantasy points per game to receivers last year as they surrendered 180 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game to the position. Look for Corey Coleman and Terrelle Pryor both to come out of the gate strong, and they are each excellent value plays in Week 1.
- The Eagles allowed 14 catches, 196 yards and three touchdowns to tight ends in the final two games of 2015 alone. However, for the year, they gave up the sixth fewest Fantasy points to the tight end position. Prior to Week 16, only two tight ends all year had reached 10 Fantasy points against the Eagles.
- Ryan Mathews was second in the NFL in terms of Fantasy points per carry in the 2015 season (0.83). With DeMarco Murray gone, he will be the primary ball carrier against the Browns, who allowed 115 rushing yards per game to backs a year ago, third most in the NFL.
- The Browns allowed seven tight end touchdowns in the final nine games of 2015, but only three tight ends topped double digits in that span. Zach Ertz finished the 2015 season with 35 catches for 450 yards and a touchdown in his last four games combined.
Three Bonus Facts
- Spencer Ware ($5400 vs. SD) is expected to shoulder the load in Kansas City in Week 1 when the Chiefs face the Chargers. Ware rushed for 96 yards and two touchdowns on just 11 carries in a meeting with San Diego last year. The Chargers allowed the fourth-most Fantasy points per game to the running back position in 2015 at just over 21 points per game.
- Derek Carr ($7700 at NO) is my top quarterback value play of the week. He has a healthy Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree at receiver, which provides one of the best tandems in the NFL and they should feast on a New Orleans pass defense that allowed 2.8 passing touchdowns per game in 2015, most in the NFL. Fourteen of the last 16 quarterbacks to face New Orleans have produced multiple touchdowns and it is no wonder why: The Saints allowed over 28 Fantasy points per game to the position in that span, most in the NFL.
- Donte Moncrief ($6200 vs. DET) had at least six targets in six of the seven games started by Andrew Luck a year ago and produced five touchdowns in those games as well. With Andre Johnson out of the picture, Moncrief is the clear No. 2 receiver in the potent Indy passing game.