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Zegura’s Fantasy Football Fact Sheet: Week 16

#CLEvsCHI

  1. Quarterbacks have produced multiple touchdowns or 300 yards passing with one touchdown in 12 of the Browns’ 14 games this year, including four straight. Mitchell Trubisky is coming off a career-high 314 yards against the Lions, but he also threw a career-high three interceptions in that game. Trubisky has not thrown for multiple touchdowns in any game this year and has totaled two scores in just one of his 10 games. Trubisky has thrown for 164 yards or fewer in six games.
  1. The Browns have not intercepted a pass in five straight games.
  1. A running back has now produced 100 total yards or scored in six of the last seven against the Browns, and three of those backs have produced 23-plus FanDuel points.
  1. Jordan Howard is fourth in the NFL with 1,067 yards rushing and has seven scores to boot. However, he has struggled in a major way of late. Howard has been held below 40 yards rushing and without a touchdown in three of his last four games. He did explode for 147 and two scores against the Bengals two weeks ago, but other than that, he has really been limited in both opportunity and production.
  1. The opposing No. 1 receiver has scored in nine games against the Browns.
  1. The Bears don’t have a real No. 1 receiver this year. No wide receiver has even two touchdown catches on the season, and the leading receiver is Kendall Wright (50 receptions for 558 yards and one touchdown). Wright has played a bigger role of late. Over the last two weeks, he has caught 17 of his 24 targets for 188 yards (107 and 81) and no scores.
  1. The Browns have allowed at least 60 yards receiving or a touchdown to tight ends in 12 games this year. The Browns have been tight end fantasy heaven this year, and Ben Watson is a perfect example. Watson has a season-high of 43 yards against all non-Browns teams, but has 74 and a touchdown and 91 yards in his two games against the Browns, respectively.
  1. The Browns have yet to win the turnover battle in any game this year, and they have tied it just three times all year.
  1. DeShone Kizer’s up and down season continued with a real down game against the Ravens, who forced three turnovers from the rookie QB (two INTs and one sack fumble recovered for a TD). It was the first game in which Kizer had not produced a TD since Week 7.
  1. Kizer now leads the NFL with six red zone interceptions, which is tied for the most in a season since red zone data was first recorded 22 years ago.
  1. Three of the last five quarterbacks to face the Bears have thrown for multiple touchdowns, but the Bears have allowed multiple passing scores in just four games all year (Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford twice and Carson Wentz). The good news for Kizer is that Chicago only has two interceptions since Week 7 and has allowed nine passing scores in the same span.
  1. No running back has scored a rushing touchdown against the Bears in five straight games and only one back has even reached 65 yards against them during that span.
  1. In the last nine games against the Bears, only one running back has caught a touchdown and only two have 40-plus yards receiving.
  1. Over the last four weeks, Isaiah Crowell has rushed for 329 yards (82 per game) on just 50 carries. That means he is averaging a whopping 6.6 yards per rush during that span.
  1. Duke Johnson Jr. has only scored one touchdown on the road all year while finding the end zone five times at home. The last time Johnson scored on the road was Week 3 at Indianapolis, but he has scored in three of his last five games overall and has 30-plus receiving yards in five of his last six.
  1. Josh Gordon’s yards have decreased from 85 to 69 to 47 in his three games back with the Browns and he now has just 12 catches on 28 targets.
  1. A wide receiver has scored in five of the last six games against the Bears (six total scores), but they have not allowed a 100-yard receiver since Antonio Brown back in Week 3.
  1. Corey Coleman was held to just one catch for 16 yards against Baltimore in Week 15. For his career, Coleman has produced 40-plus yards in consecutive games only twice. He also has just two touchdown catches in his last 11 starts.
  1. In Weeks 12 and 13 David Njoku had eight catches for 121 yards and a touchdown. In Weeks 14 and 15, he had just one catch for 3 yards total. Seth DeValve has not scored since Week 6 and has topped 35 yards just twice since Week 2.

3 to Start

QB Matthew Stafford vs. CIN – Stafford has not had a breakout game in more than a month but is a good value against the Bengals, who have allowed four straight top 12 finishes for quarterbacks (including DeShone Kizer and Mitchell Trubisky). Stafford’s yardage has been solid the last three weeks (910 yards), but he has only four touchdowns in that span. Quarterbacks have multiple touchdowns in each of the last two against the Bengals and three of the last four.

RB Ezekiel Elliott vs. SEA – Zeke is back and I am rolling with him, as Jason Garrett said he is in great shape and will be the full-time starter. In his four games before the suspension, Elliott rushed for 406 yards and five touchdowns while adding another 92 receiving with a touchdown. Seattle has allowed back-to-back 100-yard rushing efforts with a touchdown from the opposing primary back and have given up 403 yards rushing and five total touchdowns to backs in the last two weeks alone.

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. HOU – With Antonio Brown out, look for Smith-Schuster to carry the Steelers passing attack against the Texans. He has 100 yards or a touchdown in four of the last six games and is coming off of a six-catch, 114-yard effort against the Patriots. The Texans have allowed a 100-yard receiver in each of the last two weeks and three total wide receiver scores during that span.

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