The Bills are 6-3 after losing two straight games by three points, while the 3-6 Browns are looking to bounce back after a stinging loss down in Miami. The Browns need to play a near-flawless game to defeat the supremely talented Bills, but they absolutely can get the job done.
Let's look at the path to victory in the Winning Mix.
1. Keep it close
The Browns have only gotten into real trouble this year when they were down three-plus scores early in the third quarter to the Patriots and the Dolphins. Those games quickly got away from the Browns, who are not built to be a comeback passing team, and they suffered lopsided defeats. In the three wins, as well as the four close losses, the Browns were in the game right to the very end. That will be key again this week against a Buffalo defense that is built to keep leads with a front that can generate pressure and a back end that has a league-leading 13 interceptions.
Keeping it close will ratchet up the pressure on the Bills, who have lost three games by a total of eight points this season, including back to back nail-biters. Not to mention, their MVP candidate at quarterback, Josh Allen, is just 2-9 in one-score games over the last two seasons, the second-worst winning percentage of any quarterback in the NFL.
Check out photos as the team travels to Detroit to play the Bills for week eleven of the regular season
2. Win the turnover battle
I'd love a clean sheet, as the Browns are 2-0 this year when they have not turned the ball over, but I would absolutely settle for winning the turnover battle against the Bills on Sunday. Bills quarterback Josh Allen has 13 turnovers this season and his 10 interceptions are the most in the NFL. The Bills lead the league in giveaways (18 or two per game) and Allen has thrown two interceptions in three straight games, which could be just what the doctor ordered for a Browns defense that has only three picks this year.
Generating the two turnovers that the Bills average per game this season could absolutely switch the momentum for the Browns, provide some short fields for the offense and pave the way to victory!
3. Run the Ball!
If there ever was a game to run the ball all day long with the dynamic duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, this is the one to do it. That's another reason why keeping this game close is so important, as the Browns will need to be able to run it for four quarters to beat the Bills.
Chubb is the league's third leading rusher with 904 yards and a league-best 10 touchdowns while averaging 5.7 yards per carry. The Bills play nickel or dime on 98 percent of their defensive snaps, the highest rate in the league. They have a "light box" of six or fewer defenders on 76 percent of their snaps, also the highest rate in the league. Chubb averages 9.0 yards per carry when running against a light box, which is the best in the NFL.
Over the last three weeks, the Bills have really struggled to stop the run and they won't have their two-time Pro Bowl linebacker and leading tackler Tremaine Edmunds for the game on Sunday. The last three games have seen the Bills allow 176.3 rushing yards and one touchdown per game on a whopping 5.9 yards per carry. They have allowed two different 100-yard rushers in that span, and it should come as no surprise that the Bills are 1-2 in those games.
So run Nick Chubb. and run him some more on Sunday, and the Browns can pound the rock against the Bills while keeping Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs on the sideline.